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Canada’s final World Cup qualifier important for FIFA rankings, World Cup draw

Canada officially booked its place at the 2022 FIFA World Cup with a convincing 4-0 victory over Jamaica on Sunday, marking the team’s return to the tournament since its only previous appearance in Mexico in 1986, when it meekly bowed out following three consecutive shutout losses in the group stage. 

Nearly four decades of heartbreak and hardship instantly dissipated on a frigid evening at Toronto’s BMO Field thanks to a “golden generation” of Canadian players, and a coach in John Herdman who has completely transformed the men’s national team program since his appointment a little more than four years ago.  

“It’s unbelievable. We’re a football country… We’ve just qualified for a World Cup,” said Herdman, who previously guided the women’s side to back-to-back Olympic bronze medals in 2012 and 2016. “This is a legit football country. Our women’s team won an Olympic gold [in Tokyo last summer.] What more could we ask for? It’s time.

“This country, they never believed in us because we gave them nothing to believe in. They believe now,” he said. “If we all get behind each other, this is the time for everyone to get behind football and unite, because we can be a powerhouse.” 

So now the question becomes what lies ahead for Canada before it competes in the biggest sporting event on the planet later this year? 

For starters, there is the small matter of Canada’s final match of the CONCACAF qualifiers versus Panama on Wednesday night.

The Canadians currently top the table with 28 points, and enjoy a three-point edge over the United States and Mexico. A victory or a draw in Panama City would clinch first place in the group, a seemingly unattainable goal for Herdman’s team when it started its qualifying journey in earnest a year ago. 

And if you think Canada is simply going to phone it in on Wednesday now that World Cup qualification has been secured, well, you haven’t been paying close enough attention. This team doesn’t do anything half-heartedly. Herdman would never stand for that, and the players wouldn’t dream of disrespecting him by taking their foot off the gas pedal.  

The convincing victory over Jamaica was as much about sending a message to the rest of CONCACAF as it was about booking a spot at the World Cup. The U.S. and Mexico have historically ruled soccer in this part of the world, reigning over the region with an iron fist and squashing anyone who dared to ascend to the throne. Canada clinching first place in the group would leave no doubt in anybody’s mind as to who are the new kings of the region. 

Finishing first would be advantageous for Canada, as it would give them a better opportunity of obtaining a higher seed for Friday’s draw in Doha, thus increasing the probability of it being placed into an easier group at the World Cup.  

The Canadian men were ranked 73rd in the world when they started World Cup qualifying in March, 2021. Today, Canada is 33rd. FIFA will use the rankings released on March 31 to determine the four pots for the draw. Right now, Canada is on the Pot 3-Pot 4 bubble, but a victory in Panama would likely see it move up the world rankings, thus improving its chances of landing in Pot 3 for Friday’s draw. 

Beyond that, it’s unclear at the moment what the next eight months will exactly look like for Canada before it travels to Qatar. However, Herdman is noted for going to great lengths to prepare his teams, including having a say in what hotels the team stays in for its road matches, the bus route the team will take from the hotel to the stadium, and the menu for the team meals. 

The challenge for Canada Soccer is not only to organize as many games as it can in a short period of time, but also to line up quality opponents that the men’s team can benefit from playing.  

Between last summer’s Gold Cup and the World Cup qualifiers, Canada has played 25 times since the start of 2021. But all of those games have been CONCACAF opponents. The last time Canada played a nation outside of its region was in a 1-0 loss to Iceland on Jan. 15, 2020.

Before that, you have to go back to a 1-0 win over New Zealand (Herdman’s first game in charge) on March 24, 2018 for its previous encounter against a non-CONCACAF team.  If Canada is going to be competitive at the World Cup, it has to test itself against nations from other parts of the world before heading off to Qatar. 

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