Just hold on. That’s the objective for the Canadian men’s soccer team as it heads into its penultimate window of regional World Cup qualifying matches without its best player.
With eight games down and six to go in the final round of qualifying in the CONCACAF region, Canada has put itself in great position to reach the world’s most popular sporting event for the first time since 1986. The Canadians sit alone atop the eight-team group and have the only undefeated record.
Their four wins include a monumental victory over longtime regional power Mexico in frigid Edmonton back in November. Their four draws include one in each of the two toughest road matches they’ll face, at the United States and at Mexico’s dreaded Estadio Azteca.
But Canada’s perch is far from comfortable. Only the top three teams get a ticket to Qatar, and four are jammed together at the top of the standings. The United States, CONCACAF’s highest-ranked team, is lurking just one point behind Canada in second place. Mexico and Panama, who both qualified for the last World Cup, are two points behind Canada. A win is worth three points, a draw is one and a loss is zero. So Canada’s fortunes could swing dramatically with a single match.
The fourth-place team will get another shot to qualify via a one-game playoff in June in Qatar vs. the winner of the Oceania region’s qualifying tournament.
That will most likely be New Zealand, which is currently 70 spots below No. 40 Canada in the world rankings. But a one-game scenario is always fraught. Much better to avoid it by securing your World Cup spot now.
Canada’s chances of accomplishing that could hinge on its three matches in the upcoming window: at Honduras on Thursday night at 8 p.m. ET, home vs. the United States on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET, and at El Salvador next Wednesday at 9 p.m. ET.
The showdown vs. the Americans, which will be played in Hamilton, Ont., in front of a reduced-capacity crowd of 12,000, is obviously the big one. Win that, and Canada will have swept its home games vs. the United States and Mexico (traditionally, the two teams to beat in this region) while tying both on the road.
That’s an almost-unassailable formula for World Cup qualification. But Canada will need to avoid getting tripped up in Honduras and El Salvador. They’re the two worst teams in the standings, but road matches in Central America are never easy. Fans there are extremely passionate, and they’re infamous for creating a hostile environment both inside and outside the stadium.
Canadian players who experienced the disastrous 8-1 World Cup qualifying loss in Honduras in 2012 sound like combat veterans when they talk about it.
