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  • June 7, 2020

Value Bets on Over/Under

We know how much you need a profitable betting system that is very effective and that can earn you piles of cash.
With a large number of football bettors looking for more profitable markets than 1X2, where a lack of scoring or a late equaliser can turn even the best betting judgments into losing bets, here’s a simple guide on how to beat the bookies, finding value bets in the Over/Under goals markets.

When it comes to betting, it is the average number of goals scored per match that both bookmakers and bettors look at when assessing the odds for the over/under markets.

Here’s a simple guide on how to calculate the probabilities of expected number of goals for a match and how to convert them into odds, so that you know what odds to bet your money on and what odds to avoid.

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The first step is to find the average number of goals per game, which can depend on the league. This is an easy statistical figure to find online, to give you a better idea about differences in the average goals per game across the major European leagues, premier league matches have an average of 2.4, Italy’s serie A whopping 3.21 and Spain’s

La Liga 2.85 goals per game.

Second step, calculate the probabilities
The random nature of goal scoring is the reason that allows statistics to follow a poison distribution as a simple predictive model for over/under betting.

In his book “taking chances”, john haigh drafted a table that calculates the probabilities of a team scoring 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4 or more goals based on their average number of goals per game.

In a match where the home side has an average expectancy of 1.2 goals and the away side 0.8, it is easy to determine the probabilities for the under 2.5 goals by using the above table.

You must first determine the correct scores that will lead to a winning under 2.5 bet (0-0, 1-0, 0-1. 1-1), find the respective probabilities for each team from the above table and then calculate the probabilities of each score by multiplying.

Under 2.5 goals       67.56%

Since we know the probabilities of each potential score that can lead to under 2.5, we add them to get the probability of the match ending in under 2.5 goals and, therefore, a winning under 2.5 bet. In the above example, that would be:
13.5% + 16.2% + 10.8% + 13.0% + 9.9% +4.2% = 67.56%

So, do your research ahead of the weekend, find value bets and sit back and enjoy the action, knowing that you have secured yourself long-term profits. Signup at

Betting is best profitable if you treat it as a business and investment, rather than gambling away your money and banking on luck.


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