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  • September 20, 2020

Pot Equity Edge

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You have a PEE if you expect to win more often than your average opponent. If you have four opponents, the “average” player can expect to win 20% of the time (1 in 5). If you expect to win 30% of the time, you have a PEE.
What do we do with it?
Usually, we will be raising instead of calling. Folding is going to be a pretty terrible option, so our only debate will be to call or raise.
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Example
You are in a very loose and aggressive game. Your villains are prone to raise and reraise flops with draws and pairs, as well as, bigger hands like sets and 2pr. You are on the button with Ah8h. The UTG player raises, four people cold-call, you call, and so do both blinds. (pot is 16sb) The flop comes Th9h2s, giving you the nut flush draw and an overcard. The SB bets, BB calls, and the preflop raiser raises. Two more players cold-call, and two others fold. The pot is now 24 sb’s, and you are faced with 2 sb’s to call. What do you do?
You freaking RERAISE! You have a big draw to the nuts. By the river, you will make the nut flush about 35% of the time, right? And, sometimes, you will win just by spiking your ace. With five more opponents, you will win FAR more often than your “average opponents.” 6 players and you “should” win 1/6 of the time, or 17%. Since you have the nut flush draw and an overcard, you will win more than 35% of the time. Since you have such a huge PEE, your reraise is for value!!!
Also, since you have position, that reraise may allow you to take a free card on the turn, if you choose. But, don’t automatically take the free card. WHY?
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Let’s look just a touch farther to see how your PEE will affect the turn.
In such a large pot, at such a loose table, it is unlikely you will fold many, if any, of the remaining players off. And, you don’t want them to fold anyway. This is building a pot properly for a big payout with a big draw. Let’s assume no one folds. Simply stated, you now have 5 villains in the pot for the turn. Even if the turn bricks, you will still have a 1 in 4 shot to win with your flush. That is 25%! With 5 villains, you “should” only have a 20% chance to win. Again, you have a PEE. Granted, it is not as large as it was, so we are not going to go absolutely bonkers on a turn card. But, if it checks to us, it is +EV to put a bet into the pot.
Does this make sense?
Now, when would you NOT raise the flop on a huge draw where you likely have your PEE? When you would be potentially knocking others out of the hand, thereby destroying your PEE for the turn.
In conclusion, we should remember some key points to PEE.
– If we have a PEE, our raise is for VALUE despite the fact we may not have the best hand at the moment.
– When we confirm we have a PEE, we need to consider heavily our “relative position” when the flop betting starts. Will we draw others in to a bigger pot, or will we shut them out by forcing them to call 2 bets, or more, cold?
– Do we have the chance to take a free card on the turn with our position?
These clues will help you to build bigger pots with your stronger draws
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