• July 24, 2021

Poker and Math Errors

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Folding To Reraises
This article is going to examine folding to reraises and help to determined if there are poker players making basic fundamental math errors in these situations.
Check out this example that will be following
“Player X opens the action with a raise that is 2.25 times the big blind. Player Y then makes a reraise equal to 5 times the big blind. It folds back around to Player X,who then folds, too”
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Pot Odds
Following the example above, say the blinds are 100/200 with a 25 ante at an eight-handed table. That puts 500 in the pot before a card is dealt. Player X makes it 450 to go and Player Y reraises to 1,000. There is now 1,950 in the pot.
When it folds back to Player X, he needs to call 550 to stay in the hand. 1,950/550 is 3.55 meaning our player is getting slightly over 3.5-to-1 on his money to make the call.
Poker Probability
There is no way to know the exact hand that Player Y has, so what most players do in this situation is to put Player Y on a range of hands.
What we mean by that is to estimate a group of hands that Player Y is most likely to be holding in this situation when he reraises. If he’s a tight player who only ever reraises with queens or better, then his range is queens or better. If he’s a loose aggressive kid who can reraise with any two cards, his range is any two cards. Paying attention to your table will help you determine these ranges.
Let’s say Player X and need to feel that Player Y’s range includes any pocket pair greater than 8x 8x, Ax Qx, Ax Kx, and Kx Qx -suited. Meanwhile our hand is 7♣ 6 ♣. Using an equity calculator such as can be found online, you will find that we have a little more than 35% equity in this pot holding our hand versus that range. What that means is that 35% of the time we will win the pot against that particular range of hands.
Now it’s time to evaluate the pot odds in comparison with our equity. To do that, take 1 and divide it by our pot odds plus one (3.55+1=4.55). This will give us the minimum equity we need to make this a mathematically correct call. For this example, our equity minimum is 22%. Thus, folding in this situation is a mistake in the long run of nearly 13%. That’s a fairly substantial number.
What about against the rock who will only reraise with Qx Qx or better? We’d have only 22% equity against that player with our7♣ 6 ♣. , in which case folding to the reraise would be correct.
And against the maniac who reraises with any two cards? We have 45% equity against him
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Steve Carr

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