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  • September 28, 2020

Dealer Bust Percentages at Blackjack

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When you play Blackjack you have some incomplete information to base your playing decisions on. You know the value of your two cards and you know the value of the dealer’s up card. You don’t know what the dealer’s hole card is and you don’t know what the next card out of the shoe will be. However if you use basic strategy when you play you can make an accurate decision based on just the information that you do know.
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Blackjack basic strategy is based on the mathematics of the game. It has been tested and refined through computer simulations. When it is followed correctly it reduces the house edge to the minimum, which is usually about one-half of a percent. When you use basic strategy, you make your decision to Hit, stand or double down based on your two cards and the dealers up card. Many players wonder what percentage of time will the dealer bust based on their up card.
The dealer will bust more often with certain up cards than with others. Take a look at the chart below. You will see that the worst cards for the dealer are the 5 and 6 followed closely by the 4. When the dealer is showing a 5 or a 6 they have a 42 percent chance of busting and a 40 percent chance when they have a 4 showing. This is why you double down more often when the dealer is showing a 4, 5 or 6.
The cards where the dealer is least likely to bust are the Ace, 10 and 9. When the dealer has one of these cards showing, they also have another advantage since the player has to act first. According to basic strategy, a player with a hand of less than 17 will need to take a hit when the dealer is showing a 7 – 8 – 9 – 10 or ace. If the player busts, he loses the hand even if the dealer also busts so the percentage of times the house will win is greater than just the bust percentage shown in the chart.
blackjack Dealer Bust Percentages
 

Dealer Card2345678910Ace
Bust %35%37%40%42%42%26%24%23%23%17%

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